Slow and steady…or NFL week 5
We went 3-2 last week. That brings our record for the year to 9-10-1 against the spread. Jimmy “the greek” always said the goal is to have enough left so you can still play tomorrow. One good week and we’ll be on the plus side of things. A few things happened during the week, one being the trading of Randy Moss. Albeit he leads the league in drops with 4, he still had to be accounted for. Moss is still the best leaping receiver in the league. Combined with Mr. Accuracy (aka Tom Brady) there was a constent need for double coverage which opened up the lanes for what’s known as “death by (Wes) Welker. “ With Moss gone will Welker be as lethal? And in Minnesota does Brett Favre have anything left to get the ball to Moss? An interesting side note, if you have Moss on your fantasy team he has the potential to play in 17 games this year. One less bye to manage.
In Philadelphia Michael Vick was looking like the ultimate weapon. Almost like Michael Jordan launching a 22 foot rainbow, when Vick threw the ball you almost expected someone to catch it for a big gain. The thing is with the speed at wideout the Eagles have, if you play Jackson and Maclin in zone, your backfield turns their back on Vick, which opens up huge running lanes. Leave someone around to “spy” Vick and someone is single covered and big gain potential happens. Seriously, Have you ever seen a quarterback have as many runs up the middle with no one around him? Moses didn’t have as much separation parting the Red Sea. Once Kolb came into the game the Redskins pinched the corners and played 2 deep down the middle. What’s funny is after a decade plus of complaining they never run the ball enough, the Eagles ran the ball a lot in the first half, and everyone complained “why don’t they throw the ball deep?”
In Pittsburgh the Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back. Should be fun.
One more thought, the officiating is horrible, I thought the playoff officiating was bad last year. Holding calls have sky rocketed as moving the umpire exposes him to a view not previously seen. The players have yet to adapt to it. When they changed the blocking rules on kick offs and punts years ago, it took about a decade for the players to catch up. Two holding calls on your stud left tackle looks to be the norm in the coming weeks. That’s okay; the Refs are making up for it by running the game poorly. That ex chief of officials who wasted your time on Fox is right maybe half the time. I’m not saying he doesn’t know the rules or procedures. He does. It’s that the officiating crews are so bad they’ve become unpredictable.
Alright, let’s pick some games. Remember this is just for fun. Any losses incurred by relying on this information is your own doing and not the responsibility of me, The Mountain, Entercom Northeast, Entercom Communications, it’s properties or it’s subsidiaries.
Packers (-3) over Redskins. What? The Redskins played Philadelphia tough and they’re favored over the packers? Really? Does anyone realize McNabb had an paltry 124 yards passing and a QB rating of 60? The Pack is 9-3-1 ATS over their last 13, enough to carry them past a field goal in DC. Back the Pack!
Texans (-3) over Giants. The bears played flat last week after a dramatic comeback the week earlier against their hated rivals, The Packers. The Giants still have nothing. The Giants are 1-7 ATS their last 8 on grass, and 2-8 ATS when playing teams with winning records. But Tom Caughlin’s facial expressions are always good for an out loud laugh, so the afternoon won’t be a total waste. Texans the play here.
Eagles (+3 ½) over 49ers. Can anyone explain how the Eagles are 3 and a half point dog against an 0-4 team ? The Birds are 8-3 ATS their last 11 in week 5 (seriously we go to every length to find this stuff). Meanwhile the 49ers are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 in October. And the Eagles have won the last 4 meetings. That’s enough for me. Birds.
Chargers (-6) over Raiders. Oakland changed QBs last week and managed to play worse. This has B-L-O-W-O-U-T written all over it. The Raiders are 15-36 ATS over their last 51 at home. That’s about 5 years. That’s awful. Go Bolts.
Jets (-4) over Vikings. Under the October skies in New Jersey, the Jets had but one mission….find Brett Favre and punish him. All apologies to John Facenda and NFL films (a direct rip off if you didn’t recognize it). Still, if Rex Ryan is anything like the “old man”(Buddy) it’s clobberin’ time. The Jets are 7-2 ATS at home over their last 9. Randy Moss will run “go” routes. The Jets Defense will be a little too much. Fireman Ed will be singing sweetly. J-E-T-S, Jets Jets Jets!